“We advance the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues”In its own words: forecastingresearch.org
Research organisation that develops forecasting methods and runs large-scale forecasting studies on AI, biosecurity and geopolitics, including a longitudinal expert panel on AI progress and a benchmark of AI forecasting accuracy.
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Received $2.7M from 2 funders
’22
’23
’24
Led by Philip Tetlock (President), Josh Rosenberg (CEO)Checked 26 Oct 2026
Money flows
Where its money came from and where it went. Pick years and what to show; hover a box or ribbon for details, click one to focus it, click the background to see everything.
Funded by
- Coefficient Giving$1.9M
- Founders Pledge$868k
All grants
7 grants totalling $2.7M, newest first.
2024 4 grants · $1.7M
| Date | Funder | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | Coefficient Giving | $1.1M | AI Progress Forecasting Panel source |
| Oct 2024 | Coefficient Giving | $359k | Tripwire Capability Evaluations source |
| Apr 2024 | Coefficient Giving | $125k | Red-line Evaluations source |
| Apr 2024 | Coefficient Giving | $100k | Forecasting Benchmark source |
2023 2 grants · $225k
| Date | Funder | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2023 | Coefficient Giving | $75k | AI Worldviews Contest: Forecasting Research Institute Prize for the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) (Open Philanthropy prize, announced 30 Sep 2023) source |
| Jun 2023 | Coefficient Giving | $150k | Project on forecasts related to AI — paid by Good Ventures Foundation on Open Philanthropy's advice, fiscal year Jul 2022–Jun 2023 (990-PF Part XIV 3a; payment in that year, not the grant total) source |
2022 1 grant · $868k
| Date | Funder | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Founders Pledge | $868k | Founders Pledge members' grants for forecasting research, funding the 2022 Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (AI, bio, nuclear, climate risks); total across forecasting grants (FP 2023 impact report) source |